SAN JOSE, CA – Will the upcoming holiday shopping season be one for the record books? Adobe released its online shopping forecast for the 2025 holiday season—making educated guesses covering the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025.
Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $253.4 billion this holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025), which represents 5.3% growth year-over-year (YoY). A record 10 days will see consumers spend over $5 billion in a single day (up from 7 days last year). Cyber Week (the 5-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive 17.2% of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion (up 6.3% YoY).
An Adobe press release confirms that Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season—and year—at $14.2 billion (up 6.3% YoY). However, Black Friday is expected to see higher growth this season, rising 8.3% YoY at $11.7 billion. On Thanksgiving, consumers are expected to spend $6.4 billion online (up 4.9% YoY).
Mobile devices will cement their position as the dominant shopping platform this season, set to drive a record 56.1% share of online spend (vs. desktop shopping). This represents $142.7 billion, up 8.5% YoY. The shift towards mobile shopping has greatly accelerated in recent years: During the 2020 holiday season, mobile accounted for just 40% of online spend.
Buy Now Pay Later to Drive Additional $2 Billion
Consumers are looking for greater flexibility in managing their budgets this holiday season, with Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spend (up 11% YoY). This is roughly $2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season, when BNPL drove $18.2 billion in online spend.
BNPL usage on Cyber Monday is expected to hit a new milestone and cross $1 billion ($1.04 billion, up 5% YoY). Usage on Black Friday is set to be strong as well, with significant YoY growth ($761.8 million, up 11% YoY). The vast majority of BNPL spend is set to come through mobile devices this season at 79% share (vs. desktop), representing $15.6 billion (up 8.3% YoY). Click Here for more predictions.